EUR/CAD M30 SHORT

Strong looking HHR with a fake out in a sideways market which is the most crucial aspect of trading fake outs on the intra day level - on any level actually.

Position size was calculated using the risk value of 12 pips which was the length of the wick of the fake out bar + 2 pips +spread.

Again this is for the purpose of calculating my position size but in effect the trade gets stopped out when we get a close above the high of the fake out bar or we take out the emergency stop.

Price made a swift move down to the FTA and bounced off it pretty rapidly. Killed the trade when we closed above the fake out bar high. The loss was -1R

EUR/CAD DAILY SHORT

Hey guys,

Its been a while since my last displayed trade. Not that I wasn't trading. Was just busy with a lot of stuff including tweaking, testing and practicing a lot with my methods with regards to the rules I started off with. I haven't been trading this method for a decade so understandably some tweaking around is important to make sure my rules/methods held through different market conditions and situations.

My academic life (thankfully the last year of it) is about to resume in a week and that leaves me summing up my notes and research and getting back to some serious trading. Understandably I will mostly be hooked around the larger time frames now to manage trading in the little time I have. Also that means fewer trades and more time in between trading decisions which should (hopefully) allow me to update the blog more frequently.

So anyways...

Here's a short I took today on the EUR/CAD daily chart.

Just a regular 2 day fake out with the trend.

Entry on the pull back to the HCR. My stop if you notice is not above the entire fake out consisting of the two daily bars but instead a little tighter then that. I admire the consistency with which price respects round numbers and when I see them line up somewhere in between my entry point and my regular stop loss placement I use that opportunity to tighten my stop a bit. The HCR level also falls just above the 1.24 RN. Just an added source of confluence and indication that price should be expected to hold off of the HCR obediently - calling for a tighter stop. The stop could have been even more tight but given the "cross" nature of the pair I have given it a bit more room.

Let's see how this unfolds.

FINAL UPDATE

Just closed the trade out for about -10 pips which is like -0.2R.

Didn't like the way price was constantly attacking the 1.24 RN. We're nearing the illiquid Asian sessions and the fact that the whole of London and NY couldn't push price lower given the quality of the setup points to some red flags.

I love setups like these where round numbers assist you in managing your trades more effectively.  Essentially the thought process here was that the 1.24 given that it lined up with the strong HCR and in a downtrend and with plenty of space below - should have held pretty easily and fairly strongly . Now that it didn't, it makes the decision to get out so much more easier and less stressful.

USD/CAD 30M LONG

Was lucky to spot this on the Usd/Cad yesterday. Beautiful trade setup IMHO. Nice strong support zone and a pretty solid looking fake out bar. Goes straight for the marked resistance. Text book setup.

USD/CHF 4H SHORT

A setup similar to the NZD/JPY setup. This time we have a short setup off of an HHR straddling a big round number the 9500.

We also have divergence across various oscillators on both setups such as on the macd (not shown in the chart)

entry on the pul back to the HHR

This just took off in the wrong direction. The HHR is a very strong area. The thrust was powerful and there is a strong chance this area will now hold as support. A losing trade.

The rules suggest I need to wait for the 4H to close before I make a decision. This strong push on has made me cut this trade out for just under -2R.

NZD/JPY 4H LONG

Took a long off NJ pin/fake out bar. 95.5 round number straddling a lowest low of support presenting a fake out off of it.

Entry on the pull back to the LLS.

USD/CAD 4H SHORT

Here's a trade I took today on the USD/CAD.

I am choked for time due to academic pressures and stress and couldn't put this up on the blog as a step by step managed trade.

But here's the final result:

Took full profit at 2R (Just above the 1.000 BRN and roughly at the daily HCR level.

Notice the wick on the fake out bar isn't very authoritative (not long enough) compared to the momentum with which price rushed into the HHR level. This was always going to be an above normal risk trade. Its important to not let go off our James16 basics of price action. That wick was clearly weak and not a sure footed stance of a heavy block of sell orders coming in. What made it very playable though was clearly the location.

CAD/CHF DAILY TRADE

ENTRY

An absolutely no brainer of a trade!

Lovely pin bar cum fake out. The best part is where we closed below the minor HCR levels immediately under the major HCR (gold horizontal line) that validated the setup. Always a good indication of strength.

 

UPDATE 1: 

FTA hit. Stop to BE.

   

 

FINAL UPDATE

Its almost ridiculous the kind of state the markets are in. I can confidently say we're in the toughest of market conditions I have seen in a looongg time. Its as if every level out there is pushing and pulling at price in a big way.

Just a BE out of this.The LCS has held brilliantly and price is threatening to stay into a mode of consolidation at least if not burst to the upside for another scare.

It seems the "take and hold for a runner" theme is clearly not working in these rough conditions, I may have to revert to quick in and out type trades till we the ominous clouds disappear.

Trade safe guys.