Another simple trade in a sideways market. I could have held for longer (maybe upto the 150 EMA) but I don't like to take chances with major trouble areas in a choppy market, in any market in fact.
Friday, December 7, 2012
EUR/CAD DAILY SHORT
A textbook setup by all means. Nice swing high in confluence with the 1.3 RN (EXTREMELY STRONG COMBO) with decent space to the critical area marked in blue.
This may not be the end of the down move but I stuck with my initial plan of taking all off at this (blue area) major trouble area just above the 150 ema.
This may not be the end of the down move but I stuck with my initial plan of taking all off at this (blue area) major trouble area just above the 150 ema.
Thursday, August 30, 2012
EUR/CAD M30 SHORT
Strong looking HHR with a fake out in a sideways market which is the most crucial aspect of trading fake outs on the intra day level - on any level actually.
Position size was calculated using the risk value of 12 pips which was the length of the wick of the fake out bar + 2 pips +spread.
Again this is for the purpose of calculating my position size but in effect the trade gets stopped out when we get a close above the high of the fake out bar or we take out the emergency stop.
Price made a swift move down to the FTA and bounced off it pretty rapidly. Killed the trade when we closed above the fake out bar high. The loss was -1R
Position size was calculated using the risk value of 12 pips which was the length of the wick of the fake out bar + 2 pips +spread.
Again this is for the purpose of calculating my position size but in effect the trade gets stopped out when we get a close above the high of the fake out bar or we take out the emergency stop.
Price made a swift move down to the FTA and bounced off it pretty rapidly. Killed the trade when we closed above the fake out bar high. The loss was -1R
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
EUR/CAD DAILY SHORT
Hey guys,
Its been a while since my last displayed trade. Not that I wasn't trading. Was just busy with a lot of stuff including tweaking, testing and practicing a lot with my methods with regards to the rules I started off with. I haven't been trading this method for a decade so understandably some tweaking around is important to make sure my rules/methods held through different market conditions and situations.
My academic life (thankfully the last year of it) is about to resume in a week and that leaves me summing up my notes and research and getting back to some serious trading. Understandably I will mostly be hooked around the larger time frames now to manage trading in the little time I have. Also that means fewer trades and more time in between trading decisions which should (hopefully) allow me to update the blog more frequently.
So anyways...
Here's a short I took today on the EUR/CAD daily chart.
Just a regular 2 day fake out with the trend.
Entry on the pull back to the HCR. My stop if you notice is not above the entire fake out consisting of the two daily bars but instead a little tighter then that. I admire the consistency with which price respects round numbers and when I see them line up somewhere in between my entry point and my regular stop loss placement I use that opportunity to tighten my stop a bit. The HCR level also falls just above the 1.24 RN. Just an added source of confluence and indication that price should be expected to hold off of the HCR obediently - calling for a tighter stop. The stop could have been even more tight but given the "cross" nature of the pair I have given it a bit more room.
Let's see how this unfolds.
FINAL UPDATE
Just closed the trade out for about -10 pips which is like -0.2R.
Didn't like the way price was constantly attacking the 1.24 RN. We're nearing the illiquid Asian sessions and the fact that the whole of London and NY couldn't push price lower given the quality of the setup points to some red flags.
I love setups like these where round numbers assist you in managing your trades more effectively. Essentially the thought process here was that the 1.24 given that it lined up with the strong HCR and in a downtrend and with plenty of space below - should have held pretty easily and fairly strongly . Now that it didn't, it makes the decision to get out so much more easier and less stressful.
Its been a while since my last displayed trade. Not that I wasn't trading. Was just busy with a lot of stuff including tweaking, testing and practicing a lot with my methods with regards to the rules I started off with. I haven't been trading this method for a decade so understandably some tweaking around is important to make sure my rules/methods held through different market conditions and situations.
My academic life (thankfully the last year of it) is about to resume in a week and that leaves me summing up my notes and research and getting back to some serious trading. Understandably I will mostly be hooked around the larger time frames now to manage trading in the little time I have. Also that means fewer trades and more time in between trading decisions which should (hopefully) allow me to update the blog more frequently.
So anyways...
Here's a short I took today on the EUR/CAD daily chart.
Just a regular 2 day fake out with the trend.
Entry on the pull back to the HCR. My stop if you notice is not above the entire fake out consisting of the two daily bars but instead a little tighter then that. I admire the consistency with which price respects round numbers and when I see them line up somewhere in between my entry point and my regular stop loss placement I use that opportunity to tighten my stop a bit. The HCR level also falls just above the 1.24 RN. Just an added source of confluence and indication that price should be expected to hold off of the HCR obediently - calling for a tighter stop. The stop could have been even more tight but given the "cross" nature of the pair I have given it a bit more room.
Let's see how this unfolds.
FINAL UPDATE
Just closed the trade out for about -10 pips which is like -0.2R.
Didn't like the way price was constantly attacking the 1.24 RN. We're nearing the illiquid Asian sessions and the fact that the whole of London and NY couldn't push price lower given the quality of the setup points to some red flags.
I love setups like these where round numbers assist you in managing your trades more effectively. Essentially the thought process here was that the 1.24 given that it lined up with the strong HCR and in a downtrend and with plenty of space below - should have held pretty easily and fairly strongly . Now that it didn't, it makes the decision to get out so much more easier and less stressful.
Thursday, June 14, 2012
USD/CAD 30M LONG
Was lucky to spot this on the Usd/Cad yesterday. Beautiful trade setup IMHO. Nice strong support zone and a pretty solid looking fake out bar. Goes straight for the marked resistance. Text book setup.
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
USD/CHF 4H SHORT
A setup similar to the NZD/JPY setup. This time we have a short setup off of an HHR straddling a big round number the 9500.
We also have divergence across various oscillators on both setups such as on the macd (not shown in the chart)
entry on the pul back to the HHR
This just took off in the wrong direction. The HHR is a very strong area. The thrust was powerful and there is a strong chance this area will now hold as support. A losing trade.
The rules suggest I need to wait for the 4H to close before I make a decision. This strong push on has made me cut this trade out for just under -2R.
We also have divergence across various oscillators on both setups such as on the macd (not shown in the chart)
entry on the pul back to the HHR
This just took off in the wrong direction. The HHR is a very strong area. The thrust was powerful and there is a strong chance this area will now hold as support. A losing trade.
The rules suggest I need to wait for the 4H to close before I make a decision. This strong push on has made me cut this trade out for just under -2R.
NZD/JPY 4H LONG
Took a long off NJ pin/fake out bar. 95.5 round number straddling a lowest low of support presenting a fake out off of it.
Entry on the pull back to the LLS.
Entry on the pull back to the LLS.
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
USD/CAD 4H SHORT
Here's a trade I took today on the USD/CAD.
I am choked for time due to academic pressures and stress and couldn't put this up on the blog as a step by step managed trade.
But here's the final result:
Took full profit at 2R (Just above the 1.000 BRN and roughly at the daily HCR level.
Notice the wick on the fake out bar isn't very authoritative (not long enough) compared to the momentum with which price rushed into the HHR level. This was always going to be an above normal risk trade. Its important to not let go off our James16 basics of price action. That wick was clearly weak and not a sure footed stance of a heavy block of sell orders coming in. What made it very playable though was clearly the location.
I am choked for time due to academic pressures and stress and couldn't put this up on the blog as a step by step managed trade.
But here's the final result:
Took full profit at 2R (Just above the 1.000 BRN and roughly at the daily HCR level.
Notice the wick on the fake out bar isn't very authoritative (not long enough) compared to the momentum with which price rushed into the HHR level. This was always going to be an above normal risk trade. Its important to not let go off our James16 basics of price action. That wick was clearly weak and not a sure footed stance of a heavy block of sell orders coming in. What made it very playable though was clearly the location.
Friday, May 4, 2012
CAD/CHF DAILY TRADE
ENTRY
An absolutely no brainer of a trade!
Lovely pin bar cum fake out. The best part is where we closed below the minor HCR levels immediately under the major HCR (gold horizontal line) that validated the setup. Always a good indication of strength.
UPDATE 1:
FTA hit. Stop to BE.
FINAL UPDATE
Its almost ridiculous the kind of state the markets are in. I can confidently say we're in the toughest of market conditions I have seen in a looongg time. Its as if every level out there is pushing and pulling at price in a big way.
Just a BE out of this.The LCS has held brilliantly and price is threatening to stay into a mode of consolidation at least if not burst to the upside for another scare.
It seems the "take and hold for a runner" theme is clearly not working in these rough conditions, I may have to revert to quick in and out type trades till we the ominous clouds disappear.
Trade safe guys.
Thursday, May 3, 2012
NZD/USD 4H LONG
Long off NU....lovely deep double bottom on the pair and nice looking fake out.
Closed the trade after the 4H closed below the low of the fake out bar.
Nothing wrong with the setup, I'll take the loss.
FINAL UPDATE:
Closed the trade after the 4H closed below the low of the fake out bar.
Nothing wrong with the setup, I'll take the loss.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
CAD/CHF 4H short
ENTRY:
Pretty self explanatory I guess...
UPDATE 1:
Price hits the FTA. Stop is now at BE. You gotta love these swinging markets. They can be lucrative but also tricky to trade in.
Hoping for a 4H close below the marked FTA.
FINAL UPDATE:
Stopped out at BE. :(
While I obviously didn't "lose" money this is still very much a loss, and a pathetically managed trade in my book.
It basically highlights the fickle nature of trading in a sideways market. The trick is always to never lose sight of your trouble areas...minor and major both.
I feel I am too desperate for a runner in that I just hope for my trades to go to the moon all the time. That's right I said "Hope".
I can only bring this down to "empty hoping" when I see a trade in a sideways market hit an obvious FTA at 2 x my initial risk and thendo nothing but set a stop to BE to watch it bounce off it big time and take me out.
Costly lesson.
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
GBP/CHF 4H final update
Got taken out on the bounce off the trend line. Turns out we still have heavy order flow at the proficient trend line.
Net gain 1.62%
Not the best of trades and a roller coaster ride through out...but hey...roller coasters are fun.Specially when you know the rules. ;)
There were at least a couple of moments where the setup seemed to have ditched me but this was a great example that preaches the importance of having to stick to your trading rules no matter what. I was watching the bars take off above the fake out high, one after the other, and the second being more threatening that the first. Yet avoiding a freak out and listening to the rule book that sanctions exits based off bar closes beyond the fake out high/low worked as it so often does.
Net gain 1.62%
Not the best of trades and a roller coaster ride through out...but hey...roller coasters are fun.Specially when you know the rules. ;)
There were at least a couple of moments where the setup seemed to have ditched me but this was a great example that preaches the importance of having to stick to your trading rules no matter what. I was watching the bars take off above the fake out high, one after the other, and the second being more threatening that the first. Yet avoiding a freak out and listening to the rule book that sanctions exits based off bar closes beyond the fake out high/low worked as it so often does.
GBP/CHF 4H Update 4
1.47 gives way and we're down to our next major trouble area. The rising support trend line.
We're up quite a bit on the trade now, and my bias is towards the conservative end of trade management from here on.
(SL moved above the 1H bar that tested the trend line)
Down to the 1H to see if the support is of any real strength at the trend line.
We're up quite a bit on the trade now, and my bias is towards the conservative end of trade management from here on.
(SL moved above the 1H bar that tested the trend line)
Down to the 1H to see if the support is of any real strength at the trend line.
GBP/CHF 4H Update 3
Guess what? No close above the HHR, despite a lot of "threatening".
Like I said in a post at the Google group, the more times price tries to break beyond HHR/LLS levels and fails to do so, the stronger the HHR/LLS areas get. We now have a move down south.
Could this be a second pursuit to the 1.47? highly probable.
Not as neat a trade as I would have liked it to be, but you gotta take what the market gives you...of course within the parameters of your "rules".
Like I said in a post at the Google group, the more times price tries to break beyond HHR/LLS levels and fails to do so, the stronger the HHR/LLS areas get. We now have a move down south.
Could this be a second pursuit to the 1.47? highly probable.
Not as neat a trade as I would have liked it to be, but you gotta take what the market gives you...of course within the parameters of your "rules".
Monday, April 30, 2012
GBP/CHF 4H Update 2
I wanted more from this lovely BEOB than a mere test of the 1.47.
Wanting a runner doesn't come without a cost. You have to be willing to under take the risk of letting the trade do its thing without a lot of defensive actions from your end. Now obviously it appears thus far that a full profit at 1.47 would have turned out to be a master stroke but like I said I saw a lot more potential in this trade to want to hold on (HHR also a major daily HCR level). However I did actually pull off 1/3 of the position at 0 before we went into the Friday close.
This has turned out to be a tester. Still waiting for a close above the HHR to kill the trade. Of course a move down is more preferred. :P
Wanting a runner doesn't come without a cost. You have to be willing to under take the risk of letting the trade do its thing without a lot of defensive actions from your end. Now obviously it appears thus far that a full profit at 1.47 would have turned out to be a master stroke but like I said I saw a lot more potential in this trade to want to hold on (HHR also a major daily HCR level). However I did actually pull off 1/3 of the position at 0 before we went into the Friday close.
This has turned out to be a tester. Still waiting for a close above the HHR to kill the trade. Of course a move down is more preferred. :P
Friday, April 27, 2012
Thursday, April 26, 2012
GBP/SGD trade update 3
Closed the trade out manually after the 4H close above both PPZs. Turns out the chop we're in is too heavy to hang on to a trade without anything more than plain hope.
Net gain: 0.5R (0.5%)
Net gain: 0.5R (0.5%)
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
GBP/CAD trade update 3 (trade complete)
stoppedout on GBP/CAD daily fake out trade.
Moved my stop above the daily/4H PPZ once a 4H bar pulled back to it from the downside and held as resistance.
net gain: 1R (1%)
Moved my stop above the daily/4H PPZ once a 4H bar pulled back to it from the downside and held as resistance.
net gain: 1R (1%)
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
GBP/SGD trade update 2
We've had a strong close at the FTA...
Stop is in, (slightly above 0.5% risk). The strong close tells me we may be moving to our next trouble area. :)
Stop is in, (slightly above 0.5% risk). The strong close tells me we may be moving to our next trouble area. :)
GBP/CAD trade update 2
The 1.6 held to my delight and we now have a 4H close below the daily HCR level. If all goes well, the daily HCR level should now be acting as resistance if price decides to pull back.
With this logic in mind, the stop is now at -10 pips which is like a1/6th of the original risk (1%)
With this logic in mind, the stop is now at -10 pips which is like a1/6th of the original risk (1%)
GBP/SGD trade update
No surprises why price stopped where it did, right?
Its crucial to know your trouble areas. . . at all times! ;)
Its crucial to know your trouble areas. . . at all times! ;)
GBP/CAD trade update
As expected, the daily HCR is holding price up as it does so on sooo many occasions.
My last line of defense will be the 1.6 BRN. Stop is set at 1.600 + 6 pips + spread.
My last line of defense will be the 1.6 BRN. Stop is set at 1.600 + 6 pips + spread.
GBP/CAD trade
Nice pin bar off the 1.6 big roung number.
A good looking fake out as well. I would have dearly liked a stronger bearish close on it as its now sitting on top of a major HCR level. Watching for signs of a break through and so far so good.
A good looking fake out as well. I would have dearly liked a stronger bearish close on it as its now sitting on top of a major HCR level. Watching for signs of a break through and so far so good.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Gu 4H trade update
Closed the trade when price closed above the high of the fake out bar.
In all honesty it was a good setup. Price went our way and then quickly pulled back to our entry point (at the HHR) as it so often does. After 5 consecutive unsuccessful attempts at trying to close above it finally was able to do it on the 5th push.
Some may argue I may have pulled my stop at least to a BE after that first red bar in my direction but I was committed to seeing price hit at least 1.6. As it is this method is not one where you'll go very far following a strategy where you want to quickly pull all the risk of the table. Some of these can be 'real testers' and that's where you have to be strong mentally.
g.
In all honesty it was a good setup. Price went our way and then quickly pulled back to our entry point (at the HHR) as it so often does. After 5 consecutive unsuccessful attempts at trying to close above it finally was able to do it on the 5th push.
Some may argue I may have pulled my stop at least to a BE after that first red bar in my direction but I was committed to seeing price hit at least 1.6. As it is this method is not one where you'll go very far following a strategy where you want to quickly pull all the risk of the table. Some of these can be 'real testers' and that's where you have to be strong mentally.
g.
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